Due to the influence of geographical environment and climate conditions, the distribution of global hydropower resources is very uneven. From the distribution of technically exploitable resources, Asia accounts for 50%, South America 18%, North America 14%, Africa 9%, Europe 8%, and Oceania 1%. According to the IHA 2020 report, as of the end of 2019, the global installed capacity of hydropower was 1308 gigawatts, including 158 gigawatts of pumped storage power stations, generating 4306 terawatt hours of electricity annually. In 2019, the new installed capacity was 15.6 GW, and the new power generation was 106 TWh. Among them, China, Laos and Pakistan in Asia, Brazil in South America, Angola, Uganda and Ethiopia in Africa, and Türkiye in Europe contributed the most.

 

The global hydropower development level, calculated based on the average annual power generation, accounts for approximately 27.3% of the technically exploitable capacity. Looking at different regions, countries in Europe and North America have a higher level of hydropower development and limited growth potential. The level of hydropower development in Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, excluding China, is relatively low and has great potential for development. South America is basically on par with the global average. Overall, the development level of global hydropower resources is not high, and there is still a lot of room for development in the future.

 

Global hydropower development will not stop moving forward

 

With global population growth, accelerated urbanization, and sustained economic and social development, human society has put forward higher requirements for water and electricity needs. At the same time, addressing global climate change and enhancing disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities have also created good opportunities and development space for river hydropower development.

 

Following the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, the United Nations put forward 17 sustainable development goals in September 2015. In the same year, the Paris Climate Change Agreement and the the Belt and Road Initiative action vision were widely recognized by the international community. In particular, the population of countries along the "the Belt and Road" accounts for 2/3 of the world's population, while the GDP is less than 1/3 of the world's GDP; Most countries belong to middle-income developing countries, with some still in a state of considerable poverty, poor infrastructure conditions, frequent floods and droughts, water scarcity, lack of guaranteed drinking water safety, and increasingly severe ecological damage caused by excessive exploitation of groundwater. The global population still suffers from power shortages exceeding 1 billion, with the most severe shortages occurring in underdeveloped regions of Asia and Africa, where there is significant development potential and a particularly urgent need for electricity.

 

At present, more than 100 countries in the world have clearly stated their intention to continue developing hydropower. Affected by floods, droughts, power shortages, water ecological environment deterioration, etc., most countries along the "the Belt and Road" regard water resources and hydropower development as the primary task of current development. Therefore, hydropower development still has a broad international cooperation foundation and development prospects.

 

Several international organizations, consulting firms, and power companies have conducted multi-objective scenario predictions and analyses of global hydropower development based on the economic development trends of various countries and the need to address climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Taking into account the achievements of various research institutions, a slightly conservative estimate based on 2018 suggests that by 2050, the global hydropower technology availability will reach 50%, with an annual power generation of approximately 7890 terawatt hours.

 

It is expected that by 2035, the global installed hydropower capacity will reach 1750 gigawatts, with an annual power generation of 6100 terawatt hours. The global newly installed hydropower capacity is about 480 gigawatts, with a development rate of 38.6%; By 2050, the installed capacity of hydropower will reach 2050 gigawatts, and from 2035 to 2050, an additional installed capacity of 300 gigawatts will be added. To achieve the 2050 target, the annual average growth rate of hydropower installed capacity is estimated to reach 2.0%. In the five years from 2015 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of installed capacity was 2.1%, while the average annual growth rate in 2019 was only 1.2%. However, the annual growth rate of installed capacity may vary greatly depending on when large-scale hydropower projects that require several years of construction are put into operation. Nevertheless, this highlights the great potential for global hydropower development in the next 10 years or even longer.

 

As of the end of 2019, the global scale of hydropower under construction was approximately 150 gigawatts. Affected by various factors, especially the slowdown in the growth rate of domestic hydropower development in China, it is expected that the growth rate of global hydropower installed capacity will decrease compared to the same period in the past. Before 2030, the global average annual production scale will be around 20 gigawatts. After 2030, the average annual production scale will be about 15 gigawatts. The regions with the largest increase in hydropower installed capacity before 2030, excluding China, are Latin America, other parts of Asia, and Africa.

 

Based on a comprehensive analysis of factors such as the potential resources that can be developed through hydropower technology, the level of economic and social development, and the demand for energy and electricity development, the rivers that will be the focus of future hydropower development (including boundary rivers or international rivers) include the Indus River (India, Pakistan, etc.), the Nile River (Ethiopia, Egypt, etc.), the Zambezi River (Zambia, Mozambique, etc.), the Niger River (Niger, Benin, Nigeria, Cote d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Chad, etc.), the Congo River (Zambia, Zaire, Central Africa, Congo, Cameroon, Angola, etc.), the Irrawaddy River, Nu Salween River (China, Myanmar, Thailand, etc.) and the Lancang Mekong River (China, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam) in Southeast Asian countries.

 

Accelerating development to promote broad consensus

 

Everything has its two sides, and the development of hydropower is no exception. In addition to the beneficial effects on ecology such as power generation, flood control, irrigation, and optimized allocation of water resources, there are also adverse effects, including reservoir inundation, resettlement of immigrants, changes in river sediment and hydrological conditions, especially the adverse effects of dam construction on migratory fish habitats.

 

Accelerating hydropower development requires enhancing awareness, promoting broader consensus, and obtaining policy support. Hydropower is a clean and renewable energy source with mature technology; Has a significant impact on energy conservation, emission reduction, and addressing climate change; The multifunctional reservoir dam (high dam and large reservoir) plays an irreplaceable role in preventing flood and drought disasters and comprehensive utilization. Strengthening environmental protection measures and optimizing reservoir operation and management can help reduce adverse impacts on the environment.

 

The development history of human society is essentially a history of continuous struggle against floods, as well as a history of resource development and utilization. The strength of human civilization is closely related to the total amount of resources it can utilize. Every increase in the total amount of resource development and utilization is a progress of civilization. In today's world, the development and progress of human society increasingly rely on sustainable natural resources. Therefore, in the development of natural resources, it is also necessary to strengthen the protection of the natural ecological environment.

 

Although large-scale development and utilization of combustible ice, nuclear fusion, and solar power generation can all be expected, the shortage of freshwater resources on Earth, uneven spatial and temporal distribution, population growth, and economic development have made the water resource situation increasingly severe. In addition, reservoir siltation, dam aging, and other factors have made it even more necessary to build reservoirs and dams with regulating functions to cope with climate change.

 

India, Pakistan, Türkiye, Peru and other countries have the advantage of backwardness and have formulated development plans for high dams and large reservoirs; Countries such as the United States, Switzerland, and Austria are studying the elevation of existing dams to increase storage capacity, compensate for sediment deposition losses, and enhance their ability to cope with climate change.

 

According to the plan, in the future, some leading reservoirs and control reservoirs will need to be built in the upper reaches and tributaries of the southwestern rivers in China. The height of the reservoir dams will be over 100 meters, and some will exceed 200 meters. It is expected that in the next 15 years, more than 200 high dams of 100 meters or more and over 20 extra high dams of 200 meters or more will be planned and constructed globally.

 

Let stakeholders share the development results

 

Even on the basis of reaching a consensus on the development of hydropower, there are still significant differences in the beneficial and adverse effects of hydropower development plans and benefit distribution mechanisms on various stakeholders. Whether hydropower development can proceed smoothly and achieve expected benefits depends on whether it can strike a balance between public and individual interests, and whether it can be competitive in terms of land, resources, environmental protection, prices, costs, and benefits.

 

Hydropower development involves various stakeholders and their distribution and sharing of benefits. Stakeholders include landowners, immigrants, developers, financing institutions, power companies, as well as designers, contractors, material and equipment suppliers, construction managers, and operation managers, as well as fisheries, agriculture, planting, and environmental protection agencies affected by hydropower development.

 

From a more macro perspective of time and space, the impact of hydropower development involves upstream and downstream, left and right banks, current and long-term, local and global, beneficial and damaged areas, and so on. To coordinate the positions of all parties and obtain support for the development of hydropower, it is necessary to conduct in-depth investigations and research proposals to ensure that the benefits of hydropower development outweigh the drawbacks. Hydropower development should not only provide appropriate compensation to stakeholders who have been adversely affected, but also enable them to share the benefits of hydropower development.

 

The development of river hydropower should be guided by problems, markets, and benefits. Based on the needs of economic and social development and the characteristics of river water and hydropower resources, river development plans and schemes should be formulated to ensure that the results of hydropower development benefit stakeholders more fairly. To this end, it is necessary to adhere to the scientific outlook on development, follow the development concept of "innovation, coordination, green, openness, and sharing", promote ecological environmental protection, comprehensive development, benefit sharing, and common development. Only in this way can the hydropower development plan receive the support of the vast majority of stakeholders.

 

In the development of international rivers and overseas hydropower projects, hydropower development enterprises particularly need to widely listen to opinions, smooth negotiation channels, comply with the requirements of the laws and regulations, international practices, and technical standards of the country where the project is located, follow the concept of "creating wealth for the country where the project is located and developing together with partners", form comprehensive and extensive international cooperation and close relationships with stakeholders, and jointly promote the sustainable development of hydropower development.

 

In the current important historical period of accelerating the reconstruction of the global energy governance system, relying on the "the Belt and Road", through the construction of energy and power interconnection with surrounding countries, promoting comprehensive cooperation and common development, and building a community of interests, responsibilities and destiny for international energy and power cooperation is an important direction of China's energy and power development in the future.

 

Sustainable development of hydropower is crucial

 

The sustainable development of hydropower is crucial. For some countries with water and electricity supply shortages, in the current urgent situation of economic and social development needs, it is inevitable to see the "Great Leap Forward" development model that is both fast and cost-effective; For Chinese power companies that have just "gone global" to seek overseas development, it is inevitable that there will be impulses and practices to pursue "excess profits". Ensuring the safety, reliability, economic rationality, appropriate cost and electricity prices, environmental friendliness, resource conservation, and sustainable development of hydropower projects are actually the most important issues.

 

In hydropower development, engineering safety is the top priority. Only safe development leads to sustainable development, and safety is the cornerstone of sustainable hydropower development. However, due to internal and external factors, recent global incidents such as dam cracking, leakage, spillway damage, dam breaches, floods, earthquakes, geological disasters, etc. have highlighted the safety hazards of reservoir dams, especially dam breaches. Dam accidents not only damage hydropower facilities and the local environment, but also cause serious losses to life and property in downstream areas. In this regard, all enterprises and institutions related to hydropower development must deeply cultivate safety awareness, organize and carry out engineering planning, surveying, design, construction, operation and maintenance work in a professional and standardized manner, prevent human errors and major safety hazards, and strengthen risk assessment and response throughout the entire life cycle.

 

Secondly, the reliability of the operation of hydropower projects, including the normal functioning of power generation, flood control, irrigation, and water supply, ensures the achievement of the expected power generation benefits and other comprehensive utilization benefits in the design. Generally speaking, dam sites with good development conditions are often already developed or have already been developed, and the remaining dam sites may have certain development difficulties or be far away from the load center, resulting in higher transmission costs, increased hydropower construction costs or lack of competitiveness in electricity prices, and reduced investment benefits. Strengthening the joint operation and scheduling of river basin cascades can help improve the reliability and economy of engineering operations.

 

The key to reducing the cost of hydropower development is to choose "good" projects and make them "good". To meet the demand for energy, electricity, and water resources in accordance with economic and social development, and based on river hydropower development planning, select "good" projects; To comply with the requirements of basic construction procedures, fully demonstrate the development scale, development methods, and reasonable timing through planning, surveying, and design, and avoid investment risks; We should learn from similar engineering experiences, adopt advanced technologies, and optimize technical solutions while ensuring safety and quality; We need to strengthen project construction management, optimize resource allocation, strictly control the process, ensure orderly progress of the project according to plan, and put it into operation and power generation on schedule.

 

In short, promoting sustainable development of hydropower requires conducting major key technology research based on the economic and social development needs of the project area, combined with the characteristics of water and hydropower resources in the basin and the specific situation of the project, and solving the feasibility, reliability, economy, and coordination issues of the project construction during the construction process. In the operation of the project, it is necessary to use cascade joint scheduling to maximize the role of the project and achieve the expected engineering benefits. Strengthen safety monitoring and evaluation, facility and equipment operation management and maintenance, solve reservoir sedimentation, diagnose the health status of dams, and strengthen and repair them to extend their service life and ensure their sustainable use.

 

Article source network: International Energy Research Center

 

 

 

Sales Hotline: 13016458318/027-85821963/400-0278050

After sales service: 189711110047

Q Q：57286187 / 3305774738

website: http://www.ajdq.net/#page5

Email: tech01@ajdq.net

New address: 401, 4th floor, Unit 1, Building 6, Contemporary Electronic Silicon Valley, No. 158 Huanhu Middle Road, Dongxihu District, Wuhan City